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By Pavel Koshkin
This American presidential election grasped the attention of people throughout the world.
According to the Pew Research Center poll, conducted among inhabitants of 24 countries, Great Britain, Japan, Germany, Austria, and Jordan are watching after the campaign as keenly as Americans: more than 50% percent of the residents of these countries are very interested in the current U.S. elections, as well as Russians. According to the data of the Russian Public Opinion Investigation Center (WCIOM), more than one third of Russians are carefully observing the competition for the U. S. Presidency (32%). It is no wonder: the future American President will influence global stability and the geopolitical situation.
The current elections are unique because of a broad range of candidates for the U.S. presidency. It is the first trend of the campaign. Every candidate who participated in the primary elections has his or her own social, political and national peculiarities. Just think it over. Here is the primary elections’ nominee list: African American Barack Obama, former fist lady Hillary Clinton, Mormon and millionaire Mitt Romney, Italian and former mayor of New York Rudolf Giuliani, Baptist preacher and guitarist Mike Huckabee, and 71-year-old John McCain. According to the polls, 84% of Americas are really happy to see these candidates in the ticket. It is worth mentioning this presidential campaign marked two great American achievements: the emergence of a prominent female candidate, as well as a prominent black candidate.
The second peculiarity of the American presidential elections is a new view on internet technologies. Obama is the first who makes use of the Internet to donate money efficiently. The world’s most famous social network Facebook is taken as the pattern by the authors of Obama’s personal site my.barackobama.com. Everybody can register on this site and add friends. About 70 thousand Americans and millions of people from the entire world are donating to support the democratic candidate. For the first time, Obama uses the social network as a media for political PR. Given that 80% of Americans visited Internet sites, Obama is bound to succeed in the fundraising.
Obama had gathered about $58 million by the middle of 2007. Remarkably, a lot of people donated $6 million through his personal site. He is the first who rejected the traditional Federal budget system because of its obsolescence. And, he demonstrated that he was an independent politician who earned Americans’ credit. 57% of young people from 18 to 35 and 44% of adults (from 50 to 60) preferred to vote for Senator Obama. About 62% of highly-educated people were sure that Obama is the most eligible candidate.
Singularity of the democratic candidate is the main peculiarity at the present American presidential elections for 2008. The son of a Kenyan shepherd, Obama has implemented the idea of the American dream and tolerance. He is good with his rhetoric: he speaks in the manner of Martin Luther King, an American activist for the right of black people. Judging someone for their personal characteristics, and not for the color of their skin, is the major principle of his platform.
Obama is the first African American nominee for the U.S. presidency. But despite it, he is very popular among Americans. According to the Gallop poll in the middle of this summer, 47% of Americans voted for Obama, while McCain won only 43% of the votes. Obama is the politician of the century. He is high-educated, democratic, outspoken, transparent and trustworthy. He has nothing to pass over in silence. That’s why he wrote the autobiography Dreams from my Father in 1995. This book has become a bestseller because it contains a lot of information about the personal life of Obama.
Now the candidates have equal chances to win the U.S. Presidency. The democratic nominee is believed to be more experienced in economics, while his rival is said to be adept in international affairs and national security. Notably, the percentage of Americans supporting McCain was increasing from 42% to 45% during the Russian-Georgian war. Obama’s formidable advantage had reduced from 50% to 45% by August 23, a Gallup poll said. However, Obama came up with the Republican nominee when the world financial crisis severely hit the American stock market. The percentage of Barrack’s supporters had rocketed approximately 10% by the middle of October. As some prominent Russian analysts say, there seems no reason to rely on the polls: the percentage of undecided voters is not known to Russians and Americans. Furthermore, it might be much more than the percentage of registered voters, the Russian experts claim. They admit that Obama has taken the lead over McCain because of the financial crisis. It is the main reason of his advantage, they said. It’s worth mentioning that the majority of students in the journalism department of Moscow State University are in favor of the democratic nominee.
The main obstacle for Obama’s presidency is projected by a number of analysts to be his race, while McCain’s disadvantage is his age. Besides, the lack of international experience affected the democrat nominee’s popularity. And, his tour to Middle East and Western Europe [as an attempt to reduce the gap in Foreign Policy] did not influence his ratings at all.
It is worth mentioning that independent candidates’ participation in the presidential campaign causes uncertainty and fuels fears about the future U.S. Presidents. Ralph Nader, a Representative of the Green party, and Robert Barr, a member of Libertarian party, might complicate the situation. The first can “steal” a number of Obama’s votes, the latter is able to prevent McCain’s presidency by drawing Republicans voters on his side. This is the main function of independent participants. Likewise, Mr. Nader «stole» the democratic candidate, Albert Gore’s votes (2. 7%) and furthered George Bush’s Presidency in 2000. Bush was ahead of the democrat only by 5%.
Let’s talk about the candidates for U.S. vice presidency. Well, I wish Obama hadn’t neglected the authority of Hillary Clinton. But he did. He underestimated the political heft of Hillary, having chosen Joseph Biden as his running mate instead, which caused the indignation of Hillary Clinton’s fans. Obama would earn the credit of women (54% of American population) and Hispanics (15% of American voters) in the case of Hilary Clinton’s Vise-presidency. After the Democratic Party convention was held, a lot of Clinton’s supporters claimed they were voting for McCain. Moreover, some of them created “The Denver group” to put the name of Hillary Clinton on the ticket together with Obama.
“If he had chosen Hillary as his running mate he would have been ahead of McCain by 10%,” a supporter of Clinton said. Indeed, the union of Obama and Clinton would become “a dream ticket.” It would increase Obama’s chances to win the American presidency. Besides, it would be a very curious political experiment and a historical challenge. It was mentioning that Biden himself confessed in a Fox News interviews that Mrs. Clinton “might be a better pick than” him because she is more qualified to be vice president.” Notably, Joseph Biden is not popular among average Americans because he is the representative of the U.S. establishment. Some democrats are confused by his age. “It was not farsighted of Obama to chose a man who would have reached the age of 70 years old by the end of Obama’s presidency, because his running mate would not able to run as the next U.S. Presidential nominee. Obama chose Biden for himself, not for the Democratic Party. He only wanted to raise his rating.”
In contrast, McCain picked out a woman as his running mate, which Obama didn’t dare. The Governor of Alaska is a big boon for the Republican candidate because of her singularity and originality. Her participation in the U.S. presidential campaign proves that the elections are unique.
Forty-four year-old Palin is the first and the youngest woman chosen as a running mate for the whole history of Republican Party. We can describe her as “American Pandora”: she is really the ideal woman, many-sided and experienced in Domestic affairs. She is felt to have been sent to McCain to have his ratings increased. The mother of 5 kids, and the winner of the Miss Alaska competition, she is now an honored member of the U.S. National Riffle Association, the most influential lobby in the United States. This body influenced the presidential elections for 2000. The NRA spendt millions of dollars to discredit Albert Gore who tried to adopt some amendments intended to restrict the right to carry gun. Given that 48% of Americans had weapons, 61% of them voted for George Bush. The NRA has spent $40 million to discredit Obama.
Sarah Palin is supposed by a number of analysts to appeal to middle-class voters, low-income Americans and women. And, she has succeeded at the first time. According to Gallop Poll, after the Republican Convention was held, the number of women supporting McCain increased up to 51%. Remarkably, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Republicans increased from 26% to 30% while Democratic identification was hit by a 2-point drop, from 37% to 35%, which came shortly after the GOP convention.
A lot of Russian and American journalists were really concerned and anxious with the last successes of McCain. He was fairly described as “a dissident” because of his decision to pick out the conservative woman. Regardless of his last failures on the debates and Obama’s victories, the results of the elections remain unpredictable. Now, two candidates are taking the lead over each other by 4 to 8%. The 8-point advantage of Obama is not the case. We don’t know who will be voted for on November 4th. The results depend on the preferences of average Americans: will they choose international stability or economic restoration, a possible confrontation with Russia or a compromise? It is an open secret that McCain gains from the Russian-Georgian confrontation while Obama benefited from the American financial crisis.
A couple words about the union of McCain and Palin. Well, it is a very curious political experiment, but extremely dangerous. If they win the elections, it will be something like a nuclear explosion. It remains to be seen whether the main Russian opponent will come to a power and what his presidency will bring about: a new “Cold War”, international and political instability or an economic crisis? Will Americans open “the chest of Pandora”, will they choose McCain and Palin? I hope they won’t.