| Home | Our Leadership | Our Economies | Our Wars | Our Perspectives | Our Culture | Links | About |
By Pavel Koshkin
Eugenie Minchenko, the General Chief at the Political Investigation International Institute at Moscow:
“I am in favor of Obama, but he is not the best candidate. The matter is that both of the nominees are not quite eligible for improving Russian-American relations. McCain is more predictable, that’s why he less dangerous than Obama. He is bound to prolong George Bush’s policy toward Russia. It will be easier to deal with the situation because, unlike Mr. Obama, McCain is not popular among Europeans, which will complicate his relationship with European leaders. The African American nominee is very popular in Europe because he embodies the idea of globalization. If he chooses anti-Russian policy, it will be much harder to improve Russian-American relations. Given Mr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, a severe Russian opponent, would like to join Obama’s team as his advisor, the democratic candidate might to take anti-Russian policy into consideration. In that case, Obama is likely to approve of confrontation between the West and the East. But, his policy will be less tight and severe than McCain’s.
McCain’s Presidency imposes misgivings also. Sara Palin is an absolutely inappropriate candidate for Vice Presidency. If she becomes the U.S President, she is likely to deploy a new “Cold War”.
Aleksey Arbatov, the head of the International Security Center at the Russian Academy of Sciences:
“I am sympathetic to Obama because he is ready to propose a compromise. If he wins the election, Russian and American authorities will face a lot of difficulties, but we should admit that slight improvements in Russian-American relationships might be achieved under his presidency. Obama is easier to be pressed by urgent conservatives because of his age and the lack of experience. In that case, he is likely to act in the manner of a tight and strict leader. Maybe he will hold tight policy toward Russia: the pressure of the conservatives prevent him from proposing compromises, which might bring about a new Cold War. No improvements will be achieved under McCain’s presidency. The likelihood of new confrontations will be feasible. His presidency is bound to fuel fears around Russian-American relations. He is hardly likely to change his mind”.
Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the leader of Liberal Democratic Party:
“I chose Mr. Obama. But, he is far from an ideal. He is less dangerous for Russia and less experienced than his rival because he is young. I doubt that the results of the American presidential election will influence the Russian-American relations. Nothing will be changed. In the case of Obama’s victory, political and economic frictions between our countries will remain as major problems. Both of the two candidates will try to press Russia and impose sanctions and its will. Under McCain’s presidency, the United States will intensively develop the Military department, which will stoke international tensions. And, the Jackson-Venice amendment is hardly likely to be scrapped. Concerning the American financial crisis, no one of the two nominees will be able to bring stability to the American economy”.
Ivan Melnikov, the duty of the Communist Party leader, the duty of the Russia State Duma chairman.
“The current U.S. Presidential elections are unpredictable and I find it really hard to make a forecast. But, I believe that Obama will win the American presidency because he is a very charismatic, attractive and approachable person. Besides, the American community is ready to vote for the African American nominee. But the main reason of Obama’s victory is the unpopularity of George Bush’s administration among Americans. Mr. Bush made a lot of mistakes during his tenure, having remained a rich inheriting for the next president’s administration. The War in Iraq and the current financial crisis was brought about by the policy of the Republican Party. And, McCain is responsible for this, too, as a member of the Republican Party. Obama has more chances to win because his policy is different from the White House’s one. These differences are likely to be the most significant factors in the presidential campaign for 2008. Obama is thought to be more eligible than the republican. But, we have to admit that no one of the two is able to propose more or less transparent way to withstand the economic crisis.
If Obama makes a fraud, McCain will get the opportunity to take the lead over Obama. We can find a lot of examples in the history of U.S. presidential elections when a front-runner failed the elections in the end. In 1948, a democratic candidate, Thomas Due, was ahead of his rivals according to the polls and then defeated the republican nominee Garry Truman at the last moment. The democrat, Al Gore, failed the elections in 2000, although American polls predicted that he was more popular than Bush. I doubt Obama’s presidency will bring about significant changes in international policy. The problem is that he will not be able neglect public opinion in the U.S. And so, if he doesn’t promote conservative policy, he might be kicked out from the whole U.S. political system by a number of influential and biased lobby groups.
It doesn’t matter for Russia who will win. I don’t see why we should describe the two as “bad” or “good” candidates. The both of them will save negative and positive stereotypes about Russia in order to be popular within their country. It would be harder for Russians authorities to deal with Obama: he is unpredictable and more cunning than McCain. I would not be surprised if he began to spread American democracy throughout the world and he might defend “American national interests” more aggressively.
At any rate, Russia doesn’t have to pay much attention to the results of American presidential elections: there will be no changes in Russian-American relationships”.